The Lovelockian nightmare scenario where our greenhouse gas emissions trigger a disasterous and rapid release of methane from the Arctic permafrost may have already begun in earnest. According to new reearch from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a vast region of methane stores has begun to destabilize in the shallow seas off the Siberian coast, releasing as much methane as is released by the entire world’s oceans. Methane, of course, has a much higher greenhouse impact than CO2. Thirty times higher, in fact. In other words, if this trend continues, we will see rapid and startling global warming that will far exceed conservative estimates like those of the IPCC, which are terrifying enough.

In an NSF press release, the warning is clear:

A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.

The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is starting to leak large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

Joe Romm of Climate Progress has excellent analysis of the report and how, when taken together with other research, threatens to elevate greenhouse gas levels to 1000 ppm (we are currently at 379 ppm with most scientists believing that 350 is the ceiling for what is safe).

But put bluntly, the destabilization of this methane sink would mean that the worst-case scenario is not something we should fear by mid-century, but much, much sooner. Meaning that, in this season of gridlock and delay, we are suddenly faced with a politically unrealistic task to act boldly and dramatically to stave off total disaster. And even if we could pull it off, I wonder if it isn’t too late anyway, for it is not clear if anything can be done to stop this release of powerful greenhouse gases.

Quite simply, this may be the discovery that James Lovelock has worried about for some time: that we might discover that the world has shifted irrecovably under our feet and the window to save civilization has closed forever.

Have a nice weekend.

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